18 February 2024
The world is growing more violent. Worst affected countries include Myanmar, Syria and Mexico as well as those experiencing more obvious crises like Gaza and Ukraine. That’s according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project or ACLED. But there’s also growing concern about more developed countries with longer established democratic traditions like the United States. In this episode ACLED chief of external affairs Hugh Pope talks about how data can give a uniquely accurate and new perspective on unfolding events and help anticipate where conflicts will worsen and where peace building efforts should be targeted. “One of the reasons that people miss what they think are unexpected ‘black swans’ is they weren’t watching the data,” says Hugh, who notes that current ACLED early warning data show conflict in countries including Lebanon and Sudan at alarming levels. Among other recent findings: the upsurge in conflict in West Bank Palestinian territories last summer that may have presaged the attack by Hamas in October; and how peaceful Black Lives Matters protests were in the United States in 2000 relative to the gatherings involving armed militias. Among European findings: and the very high number of protests by German farmers in January compared to neighbouring countries like France. That suggests the potential for German farmers to mobilise again — especially if cost-of-living issues continue to bite and the far-right Alternative for Germany takes advantage of the movement. Hugh also recalls his warnings against the rush to war in Iraq in the early 2000s when he was a correspondent for The Wall Street Journal — and when he discovered how an astrologer’s guidance could prove more compelling than his own reporting. There is a strong case, says Hugh, for promoting “data for a more peaceful world.”
